SARASOTA- Hurricane Forecasters are lowering their projections for the 2018 Hurricane Season.
“Colorado State has decreased their Hurricane forecast from 14 named storms to 11,” LaManno said. “From 6 hurricanes to one, and from around 2-3 major hurricanes to one.”
The latest forecast taking into account the increasing chance of the Pacific Ocean warm water climate pattern, El Nino; which brings cooler water temperatures to the Atlantic.
“It’s very hard if the waters are below 80 degrees or if the waters are not near 90,” LaManno said. “It’s hard to get those massive Irma’s, Maria’s and Harvey’s if the water temperatures are not to a very high level.”
El Nino patters also brings disrupting wind shears to the Atlantic.
“We are seeing a lot of wind shear in the Caribbean,” LaManno said. “Then it’s very hard for these storms to develop, so if this pattern was to develop it would be indicative of an El Nino.”
Marco LaManno says because they are already seeing these effects, he expects this forecast to stay about the same.
“There’s going to be some variability,” LaManno said. “But I’ve never seen them so massively off that they said the season was going to be below average and we had one of the most active.”
But remember it only takes one hurricane to do a lot of damage.
“Usually if we get hit it’s in an active season,” LaManno said. “Like 2016 ,2017, 2004 and 2005. But we have seen even major hurricanes hit in lesser active years, so prepare the same as normal, but still be a bit uplifted by the news.”
And SNN’s meteorologists will continue to track the tropics throughout hurricane season.